The Bitcoin options market is bearish and skewed, while the implied volatility of call options is at a historical low
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The Bitcoin options market shows a bearish bias, mainly due to the implied volatility of call options being at a historical low of 23%. There is currently a lack of buying demand for the rising trend of Bitcoin in the market. （glassnode）
As of August 5th, the tracker developed by CryptoSlate shows that at least 109 cryptocurrency projects will be closed, cease operations, or remain inactive by 2026. Among them, DeFi projects account for 28, games account for 15, infrastructure accounts for 13, Layer-1 and Layer-2 projects account for 12, other projects account for 11, NFTs account for 10, and wallets, exchanges, and analytics products account for 18.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 1st was 199000, with an expected 202000, and the previous value was revised from 197000 to 198000.
AI interpretation: The lower than expected number of initial jobless claims and their maintenance at an extremely low level directly demonstrate the extremely strong demand in the US labor market. This tight employment environment provides support for wage growth, thereby exacerbating the stickiness of core inflation. The Federal Reserve must maintain high interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating in the face of such robust employment data. The market's illusion of short-term interest rate cuts has been completely shattered, and the high interest rate environment will continue for a longer period of time.
According to Coindesk, Bitcoin's 30 day implied volatility fell to a long-term bottom of 36%, and the price fluctuated below $65000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, stated that in low volatility environments, traders have lower costs of establishing positions. If the market breaks through the concentration level of holdings, hedging operations will accelerate the trend. Adam Haeems reminds that low volatility does not mean low risk, and caution should be exercised when using leverage, especially when trading volume and market depth are low.
